RFE
26 Dec 2022, 17:15 GMT+10
Just weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his country's unprovoked full invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has proven a master of messaging, bluntly told the Kremlin it would have to 'learn the words 'reparations' and 'contributions.''
More than nine months after the start of the invasion and with no hint that Putin is ready to end his country's aggression, talk is slowly turning not only to rebuilding Ukraine once the conflict does end, but to how and who will finance what Zelenskiy has declared will be 'the largest economic project in Europe of our time,' likely to cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
For Ukraine, the answer is clear: Russia must ultimately pay for justice to be served. 'There is no alternative to Russia paying,' explained Markiyan Kliuchkovskiy, a lawyer and member of a Ukrainian government working group on reparations. 'If Russia does not want to honor its obligation to pay reparations for the damage and suffering it has caused, we, together with the civilized world, need to find a way for Russia to pay,' Kliuchkovskiy told RFE/RL.
Like other Ukrainian officials, Kliuchkovskiy points to the UN General Assembly which passed a nonbinding resolution on November 14 that calls for Russia to pay war reparations. Nearly 50 nations cosponsored the resolution on establishing an international mechanism for compensation for damage, loss, and injury, as well as a register to document evidence and claims.
'The UN General Assembly resolution is very important because it directly states that Russia has to be held accountable and offers a mechanism to do that,' Kliuchkovskiy said.
But Russia rejected that vote. Russian Ambassador to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said countries backing the resolution were attempting to position the General Assembly as a judicial body, which, he said, it is not.
And with it holding a veto on the UN Security Council, Russia could block attempts by Ukraine to seek justice in the world body. That could also hamper Kyiv in its efforts to seize the billions of frozen Russian assets abroad to help finance its postwar recovery.
Modelled On The Marshall Plan
Instead, many in the West are talking of a Marshall Plan financed by the West as the answer, modelled after the successful U.S. program to rebuild much of Western Europe after World War II. Money aside, proponents of a Marshall-type plan argue that it would also benefit Ukraine's democratic development and ambitions to join the European Union.
A report by the Washington-based German Marshall Fund -- named after the former U.S. secretary of state, George Marshall, who proposed the U.S. plan in 1947 -- on postwar reconstruction of Ukraine notes that Western backers will be wary about pouring large amounts of money into Ukraine given its reputation for corruption.
Live Briefing: Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine
RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's ongoing invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensive, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war, click here.
However, that leverage will push Ukraine to overhaul its institutions and courts if it wants a rapid integration into Europe, the report says, along with the help of the European Union, which has strict legal standards for membership and has offered the country candidate status.
That kind of package could give Ukraine an injection of much-needed Western technology, catapulting it forward, explained Jakob Kirkegaard, one of the authors of the Marshall Fund report: Designing Ukraine's Recovery In The Spirit Of The Marshall Plan.
'Larger infrastructure, especially energy and transport infrastructure being rebuilt will be 'built back better' with an eye to EU standards and abandoning the often Soviet designs, representing the modernization of Ukraine's infrastructure that will eventually make it competitive also inside the EU,' Kirkegaard told RFE/RL in e-mailed remarks.
That funding would come on top of what the West is already providing Kyiv not only in military assistance, but financial aid to keep the government afloat.
Ukraine will need at least $3 billion -- and as much as $5 billion -- a month in 2023, the head of the International Monetary Fund recently said. 'This is no easy task,' IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told world leaders gathered on October 25 to discuss Ukrainian recovery and macro-financing needs.
The Damage
The price Ukraine has paid for Russia's full invasion is huge and rising.
Russia is accused of committing more than 40,000 war crimes, Ukraine's Interior Ministry said on October 27. The invasion has also driven some 14 million Ukrainians from their homes in 'the fastest, largest displacement witnessed in decades,' according to the UN refugee chief, Filippo Grandi.
Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) has fallen this year by a staggering 32 percent -- more than in the United States during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
A man helps his neighbor to repair a roof after their houses were destroyed during fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the recently retaken town of Arhanhelske earlier this month.
Infrastructure across the country, much of it civilian, has been targeted in Russian military strikes. Cities, most notably Mariupol, have been turned to rubble. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on September 5 that Russia's invasion had caused $326 billion of damage and that $105 billion would be needed for immediate rebuilding.
That $105 billion figure was slightly lower than another estimate later that month. Researchers at the Kyiv School of Economics, who work with several Ukrainian ministries to collate data, said that more than $127 billion of damage had been documented to residential and nonresidential real estate, plus other infrastructure.
Those figures, however, are dwarfed by the estimate offered by President Zelenskiy, who said on September 6 that 'more than $1 trillion' would be needed to rebuild Ukraine, declaring that it 'will be the largest economic project in Europe of our time.' Zelenskiy's figure is higher because it also includes the 'modernization' of infrastructure to bring it in line with EU standards, Kirkegaard said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks to delegates via a video link during an international conference on Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery in Berlin in October.
Ukrainian Deputy Justice Minister Iryna Mudra, a former banker who has been involved in talks on reparations with European and U.S. partners, including U.S. Treasury Assistant Secretary Elizabeth Rosenberg, said on November 22 that Kyiv would create 'an international register of losses,' which she explained would serve as an official record of all damages suffered by Ukraine, both individuals and institutions.
Ukraine has also teamed up with Columbia Law School in New York City to establish the International Claims and Reparations Project (ICRP) whose 'team of scholars and experts will examine and propose legal frameworks for the management of international claims in reparations.'
A History Of Reparations
Paying for damage or injury, or reparations, have long been levied on the losing side of conflicts for centuries. After the First and Second Punic Wars, Rome imposedhefty war indemnities on Carthage.
Germany faced steep war reparations after World War I, as well as the war guilt clause, which has been considered a factor in the rise of Adolf Hitler's Third Reich. That reparations bill was finally paid off in 2010.
Germany was again hit by heavy reparations after World War II by the Allied powers.
Copyright (c) 2018. RFE/RL, Inc. Republished with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Washington DC 20036
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